POLITICAL VIOLENCE, PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION, VOTER TURNOUT, ELECTORAL CREDIBILITY, RIVERS STATE, NIGERIA.

TOPIC IS SUITABLE FOR:
1-Department of Political Science
2-Department of International Relations
3-Department of Peace and Conflict Studies
4-Department of Public Administration

TOPIC: POLITICAL VIOLENCE AND THE 2015 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION IN NIGERIA (A CASE STUDY RIVERS STATE)

TABLE OF CONTENT
Abstract
CHAPTER ONE: INTRODUCTION
1.1 Background of the Study
1.2 Statement of the Problem
1.3 Objectives of the Study
1.4 Research Questions
1.5 Research Hypotheses
1.6 Significance of the Study
1.7 Scope of the Study
1.8 Definition of Terms
CHAPTER TWO: REVIEW OF LITERATURE
2.1 Conceptual Framework
2.2 Theoretical Framework
2.3 Empirical Review
2.4 Summary of Literature Review 
CHAPTER THREE: METHODOLOGY    
3.0 Introduction
3.1 Research Design
3.2 Population of the Study
3.3 Sample Size
3.4 Sampling Technique
3.5  Instrument for Data Collection
3.6 Validity of the Instrument
3.7 Reliability of the Instrument
3.8 Method Of Data Collection 
3.9 Method of Data Analysis
3.10 Ethical Consideration
CHAPTER FOUR: DATA PRESENTATION AND ANALYSIS
4.0 Introduction
4.1 Data Presentation    
4.2 Demographic Analysis 
4.3 Analysis of the Causes of Political Violence During the 2015 Presidential Election in Rivers State, Nigeria
4.4 Analysis of the Major Forms of Political Violence Experienced During the 2015 Presidential Election in Rivers State
CHAPTER FIVE: SUMMARY, CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATION
5.1 Introduction
5.2 Summary
5.3 Conclusion
5.4 Limitations of the Study
5.5 Recommendations
5.6 Suggestions for Further Studies
References
Appendix

ABSTRACT
This study was carried out to examine political violence and the 2015 presidential election in Nigeria using Rivers State as a case study. The study was specifically carried out to examine the causes of political violence during the 2015 presidential election in Rivers State, Nigeria, assess the major forms of political violence experienced during the 2015 presidential election in Rivers State, determine the impact of political violence on voter turnout during the 2015 presidential election in Rivers State, and examine the influence of political violence on electoral credibility in the 2015 presidential election in Rivers State. The study employed the descriptive survey research design. The population of the study comprised 2,324,300 registered voters in Rivers State during the 2015 general elections. A sample size of 400 respondents was determined using the Taro Yamane formula, while 385 copies of the questionnaire were validated and used for analysis. The study adopted a multi-stage sampling technique involving stratified and convenience sampling methods. Hence, the questionnaire was used for data collection, while the data collected were analyzed using descriptive and inferential statistics involving frequency tables, mean scores and standard deviation. The hypotheses were tested using Pearson Chi-square statistical technique at 0.05 level of significance. From the responses obtained and analyzed, the findings revealed that intense political rivalry among parties, hate speeches, competition for political power, youth unemployment, weak enforcement of electoral laws, and political godfatherism were major causes of political violence with mean scores ranging from 3.46 to 3.61. The study also showed that physical assault, destruction of campaign materials, voter intimidation, electoral clashes, threats and coercion, and disruption of voting activities were major forms of political violence with mean scores ranging from 3.50 to 3.59. Likewise, the study further revealed that political violence had a significant impact on voter turnout during the 2015 presidential election in Rivers State (r = 0.482, t = 10.79, p = 0.014), and also had a significant influence on electoral credibility (r = 0.517, t = 11.82, p = 0.011). The study therefore recommends that electoral laws should be strictly enforced, security agencies should strengthen election security, political parties should discourage hate speech and violence, and government should expand youth empowerment programmes to reduce political violence during elections.
Keywords: Political Violence, Presidential Election, Voter Turnout, Electoral Credibility, Rivers State, Nigeria.

CHAPTER ONE
INTRODUCTION (Preview)
1.1 Background of the Study
In contemporary societies, political governance is frequently based on representative democracy, in which citizens have a say in the election of leaders through systematic elections. Elections are institutional processes, which legitimate and strengthen accountability in the state. Turnbull (2021) noted that democratic elections are organised processes which help ensure political participation and peaceful transfers of power. Salihu and Yakubu (2021) insisted electoral systems represent the maturity of democratic institutions and citizens' involvement in governance. Similarly, Nwozor et al. (2022) outlined how elections create and consolidate political legitimacy in the modern states. Historical, social, and institutional factors all impact political engagement and, thus, influence electoral processes, as Bala et al. (2023) highlighted. Igiebor (2022) noted that since the reversion to civilian rule, elections have become a major part of the democratic practice in Nigeria. Omole et al. (2025) also detailed the process of how over time, electoral participation has grown, making elections an important stabilizing force in governance systems.
Political violence is a phenomenon of concern in electoral contexts, as it poses a threat to political participation and electoral integrity. Political violence is the use of coercion, intimidation and/or physical force to shape political outcomes or to inhibit political participation. Nnajieto and Nnajieto (2024) posited that political violence is deliberate acts of undermining democratic competition by non-consensual means. This can be seen as violence against voters, destruction of election materials and intimidation of political actors as mentioned by Oguine et al. (2025). Alahira and Harisu (2025) argued that political violence frequently ensues from power and resource competition in politics. According to Ezeanya et al. (2025), these acts are often camouflaged in the general sociopolitical conflicts which are heightened during electoral seasons. Also, Bala et al., (2023) noted that political violence undermines the trust in institutions and diminishes the citizens' engagement in electioneering activities. The dynamics have been used to demonstrate how in different political systems, electoral competition can be a catalyst for coercive political behavior.
The Nigerian electoral politics has been characterised by confrontations and competition between political actors and parties especially at national elections. In the same vein, Omole et al. (2025) posited that the electoral system in Nigeria has seen significant transformation, in tandem with the overall democratic consolidation efforts. The 2015 presidential election, especially, marked a significant step in the country's democratic process. According to Onda (2026), the election made headlines because of the shocking result of an incumbent president getting crushed in the election. Chineyemba et al. (2024) observed that the election was characterised with a wide spread mobilization, high political participation and strategic party competition. The election underscored the strengths and weaknesses of Nigeria's democratic institutions, Nwozor et al. (2022) asserted. Igiebor (2022) said that the electoral competitiveness at this period brought about a greater political participation from different regions of the country which affects the political expectations and outcomes of the country.
Rivers State was strategically important during the 2015 presidential elections because of its political and economic importance in Nigeria. According to Igiebor (2022), the state has always been a battleground in the politics of the country, playing a pivotal role in elections. Omole et al (2025) reported that electoral politics in Rivers State was characterized by a high level of political involvement and political competition of party actors. Alahira and Harisu (2025) continued to argue that these competitive settings can result in the politicisation of relations during election times. Oguine et al. (2025) noted the extent of mobilization during electoral processes and high level of sensitivity of voters to political developments in the state. Ezeanya et al. (2025) defined the relevance of Rivers state in the analysis of political interaction in election as a measure of the general attributes of political behaviour in Nigeria especially in an election that was so competitive as the 2015 presidential election.

1.2 Statement of  the Problem    
The electoral process still forms a core pillar of democratic consolidation and political stability in today's system of governance. In good democratic conditions, elections are supposed to be peaceful, transparent and inclusive – citizens can vote for their choice of political leaders without fear or pressure. Good governance of elections in institutional frameworks makes them legitimate tools for selecting leaders and holding them to account as claimed by Turnbull (2021) and Salihu and Yakubu (2021). In these contexts, political competition is likely to increase, not hinder, democratic participation and state institutions are likely to be able to control electoral behavior well. But the realization of this ideal can also depend on the specific historical, institutional and socio-political contexts of the different societies: in a developing democracy, with an undeveloped electoral system, the ideal may be harder to achieve.
The electoral environment in Nigeria is far from ideal as it has witnessed various episodes of political violence that jeopardize electoral integrity and public trust in the process of elections. Nnajieto and Nnajieto (2024) posited that political violence still influences electoral results with intimidation, coercion and disruption of electoral activities which affect the confidence in election. Oguine et al. (2025) also noted that during the electoral cycle in Nigeria, there is an increase in tension which results in violent clashes between political agents/supporters. The consistent trends indicate an ongoing disconnect between citizens' electoral expectations and experiences, despite electoral administration reforms. Bala et al. (2023) and Nwozor et al. (2022) argued that the gap is an indication of structural flaws in political system and institutions which still enable electoral violence to flourish in most contexts.
The 2015 presidential elections in Rivers State and Nigeria has been a critical case in which these problems have been clearly observed, but have not been adequately explained in the literature in the context of localized dynamics. The electoral violence, which was observed in several states, was found to affect the participation of political actors and political behavior of voters; Onda (2026) and Chineyemba et al. (2024) posited that the election represented a milestone in Nigeria's democratic development. Political competition was intense in Rivers State, leading to concerns about the level, causes and consequences of political violence during the elections period. But, limited context-specific analysis of the nature and form political violence took in Rivers State during the 2015 Presidential Election and how it affected the electoral processes has been done. As identified by Omole et al. (2025) and Igiebor (2022), electoral violence in its localized forms in sub-national contexts has been under-researched. This study thus aims to bridge this gap by analysing and documenting the nature and dynamics of political violence during the 2015 presidential election in Rivers State in order to gain insight into the effect of political violence on electoral results and democratic practice.
1.3 Objective of the Study
The main purpose of this study is to investigate political violence and the 2015 presidential election in Nigeria (a case study Rivers State). The specific objectives of the study seek to:
Examine the causes of political violence during the 2015 presidential election in Rivers State, Nigeria.
1.Assess the major forms of political violence experienced during the 2015 presidential election in Rivers State.
2.Determine the impact of political violence on voter turnout during the 2015 presidential election in Rivers State.
3.Examine the influence of political violence on electoral credibility in the 2015 presidential election in Rivers State.
OTHER PARTS OF CHAPTER ONE INCLUDE:
1.4 Research Questions
1.5 Research Hypotheses
1.6 Significance of the Study
1.7 Scope of the Study 
1.8 Operationally Definition of Terms 

CHAPTER TWO
REVIEW OF LITERATURE (Preview)
This chapter critically examines relevant literature that would assist in explaining the research problem and, furthermore, recognizes the efforts of scholars who had previously contributed immensely to similar research. The chapter intends to deepen the understanding of the study and close the perceived gaps. This chapter, therefore, focuses on the concept of political violence, the concept of elections, causes and forms of political violence, the 2015 presidential election in Nigeria, the effects of political violence on electoral processes, and political violence and the 2015 presidential election in Rivers State. The chapter covers the following subheadings:
2.1 Conceptual Framework
2.2 Theoretical Framework
2.3 Empirical Review
2.4 Summary of Literature Review

CHAPTER THREE
METHODOLOGY (Preview)
Research Design: The study adopted a descriptive research design.
Population of the Study: The population of the study comprises all registered voters in Rivers State who participated in or were directly affected by the 2015 presidential election process.
Sample Size Determination: The study adopted the Taro Yamane formula to determine a sample size of 400 participants.
Sampling Technique: The study employed a multi-stage sampling technique involving stratified and convenience sampling to select the individual respondents.
Research Instrument: The study utilized a structured questionnaire as the instrument for data collection.
Methods of Data Analysis: The collected data were analyzed using frequencies, percentages, means, and standard deviations to summarize and present the demographic characteristics of the respondents and their responses. Inferential statistics, such as Pearson Chi-square, were used to test the hypotheses.

CHAPTER FOUR; DATA PRESENTATION AND ANALYSIS
MAJOR FINDINGS (Preview)
The analysis results were presented in tables. Based on the results obtained from the analysis, the following findings are made:

i. The study found that several political, economic, and institutional factors contributed to political violence during the 2015 presidential election in Rivers State, as evidenced by mean scores ranging from 3.46 to 3.59, all above the acceptance benchmark of 3.00. These factors included political competition, youth unemployment, weak enforcement of electoral laws, political godfatherism, and inflammatory political campaigns.

ii. The study found that physical assault against political opponents, destruction of campaign materials, voter intimidation, electoral clashes, threats, coercion, and disruption of voting activities were major forms of political violence experienced during the 2015 presidential election in Rivers State, as evidenced by mean scores ranging from 3.50 to 3.59, all above the acceptance benchmark of 3.00.

iii. The study found that political violence significantly affected voter turnout during the 2015 presidential election in Rivers State, as evidenced by mean scores ranging from 3.51 to 3.61, all above the acceptance benchmark of 3.00. The corresponding hypothesis test further showed a correlation coefficient (r) of 0.482, t-value of 10.79, and p-value of 0.014 (p < 0.05), leading to the rejection of the null hypothesis.

iv. The study found that political violence significantly influenced electoral credibility during the 2015 presidential election in Rivers State, as evidenced by mean scores ranging from 3.54 to 3.60, all above the acceptance benchmark of 3.00. The corresponding hypothesis test further showed a correlation coefficient (r) of 0.517, t-value of 11.82, and p-value of 0.011 (p < 0.05), leading to the rejection of the null hypothesis.

CHAPTER FIVE: SUMMARY, CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS
This chapter covers the following outline:
5.1 Introduction
5.2 Summary 
5.3 Conclusion
5.4 Limitations of the Study
5.5 Recommendations
5.6 Suggestions for Further Studies

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